Comments on: The REAL Reason Why the US Should Wait Generations Before Drilling

By: Big Lou

Big Lou — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 20:17:41 +0000

I’ve been saying for years now let’s dry up these other countries andhold on to our oil. But I agree with Len as well, you have to know when to ply your hand in regards to releasing the oil.

Glad to hear someone else have a similar take, it’s hard to convince others ofthis. I wonder if our government is planning for this. Maybe they’re not so stupid after all!!!

By: Bret @ Hope to Prosper

Bret @ Hope to Prosper — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 20:03:58 +0000

There’s a book that deals with this subject called Twighlight in the Desert. I haven’t read it personally, but I have heard it’s good.

I believe the future of eneregy lies in electricity, because it has so many different sources, some of which are clean and ubiquitous. I hope the new electric cars take off and people start to consider micro-grids and local generation. Then, paying ransome to unfriendly countries or drilling in our wildlife reserves won’t be a choice we have to make. It would be nice if crude oil goes away as our main energy source, just like whale oil did a hundred years ago.

By: Tesla

Tesla — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 14:25:02 +0000

Right on that!

By: Darwin

Darwin — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 14:18:53 +0000

Yeah, surely the US will run into some sort of other financial crisis or deficit spending and it would be “hmm, where can we shift some money from” kind of like how they’re depleting the Social Security funds now for other purposes and how they’re just using record levels of debt to fund things now that our kids will have to bear in the future.

Perhaps it won’t be a perfectly orchestrated strategy, but surely we’d be better off tapping it 40 years from now than today…

By: Roger, the Amateur Finanicer

Roger, the Amateur Finanicer — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 22:07:37 +0000

Diabolical! Rivals the best Bond villains in cleverness and foresight. I doubt it can be implemented effectively though. Even getting beyond the difficulty in properly timing the US oil sell off, there’s the fact that we’re looking at years (Decades? Perhaps even centuries, if our predictions are really, really off) to see any payoff. Given that politicians operate on time frames no longer than the next election, and as short as the next political poll, getting them to do something that will only benefit us when they are out of office is nigh impossible.

By: Paul Kamp

Paul Kamp — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 18:54:18 +0000

Loved this post – may I suggest calling it “The Oil Emergency Fund”? As Len states, it would be hard to nail the timing on this one – recall the populist rage as oil climbed to massive highs in 2008 – just the fact throngs of people were yelling “Drill Baby Drill!” doesn’t give me great confidence we could hold off long enough to have it play out like this. However, your reasoning is sound, and hopefully I’m proven 100% incorrect!

By: Len Penzo

Len Penzo — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 01:08:07 +0000

Very interesting post, Darwin! And although I would like to think your evil plan might just work, I don’t think it would ultimately play out that way.

I think the fatal flaw relies on the assumption that the US would know precisely when to turn the spigot back on. Wait too long and oil becomes, as you say, obsolete – at least to the point where the revenues may be large, but unremarkable. Too early and, well… you’ve blown your opportunity for your monopoly.

But it looks good on paper and I like your thinking!

Best,

Len
Len Penzo dot Com