Comments on: Is Now the Time to Short US Treasuries? http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/ Financial Evolution: Education, Adaptation, Achievement Sat, 13 Mar 2010 19:34:08 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: » Don’t Let Short-Term Events Disrupt Long-Term Planning http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-4690 » Don’t Let Short-Term Events Disrupt Long-Term Planning Mon, 08 Mar 2010 11:01:26 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-4690 [...] to move was down (driving yield up). And they did. It was so plainly obvious to me in 2009 that I shorted Treasuries in my trading account with a practical risk-free gain in my [...] [...] to move was down (driving yield up). And they did. It was so plainly obvious to me in 2009 that I shorted Treasuries in my trading account with a practical risk-free gain in my [...]

]]> By: Preferred ETF Delivers High Yield with Monthly Payouts and Share Appreciation to Boot http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-3762 Preferred ETF Delivers High Yield with Monthly Payouts and Share Appreciation to Boot Fri, 15 Jan 2010 03:24:45 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-3762 [...] insatiable demand for high yield right now in light of the paltry returns on Treasuries (see how to Short Treasuries), even the highest yield savings accounts and other conventional vehicles, even retail investors [...] [...] insatiable demand for high yield right now in light of the paltry returns on Treasuries (see how to Short Treasuries), even the highest yield savings accounts and other conventional vehicles, even retail investors [...]

]]> By: RL http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-2269 RL Wed, 07 Oct 2009 19:14:34 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-2269 I want to buy an instrument to hold for 5 to 10 years that pays the inverse of a US 12-month bill and resets every 12-month I want to buy an instrument to hold for 5 to 10 years that pays the inverse of a US 12-month bill and resets every 12-month

]]> By: John http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-2008 John Thu, 17 Sep 2009 19:16:16 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-2008 I can see how TBT is not a good long term investment. Shorting TLT appears to be better for a long term strategy, as its value seems to keep better pace with the underlyings. But is it the best? What about shorting individual long term Treasury zero coupon Strips? Can they be shorted and held as shorts long term? What would be the most cost efficient way of shorting treasuries for the long term? I can see how TBT is not a good long term investment. Shorting TLT appears to be better for a long term strategy, as its value seems to keep better pace with the underlyings. But is it the best? What about shorting individual long term Treasury zero coupon Strips? Can they be shorted and held as shorts long term? What would be the most cost efficient way of shorting treasuries for the long term?

]]> By: Darwin http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-995 Darwin Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:55:58 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-995 Raymm, While I agree that the 2x and 3x are not good long term holds (check out my article on The Riskiest ETFs on Earth: http://www.darwinsfinance.com/riskiest-etfs-earth-3x-returns/ ), if there is a rapid, sustained trend, the ETFs do continue to outperform the underlying, which is what happened with TBT. I stuck with it until last week, selling in the high 50s making a handsome profit. I disagree with the advice that this is due to high fees though. The annal fees are negligible compared to the mathematical certainty that over time, volatility degrades the share price of leveraged ETFs due to daily rebalancing. This is outlined further in my article. Outcome is the same, but underlying reason is a bit more complex than fees. Raymm,
While I agree that the 2x and 3x are not good long term holds (check out my article on The Riskiest ETFs on Earth: http://www.darwinsfinance.com/riskiest-etfs-earth-3x-returns/ ), if there is a rapid, sustained trend, the ETFs do continue to outperform the underlying, which is what happened with TBT. I stuck with it until last week, selling in the high 50s making a handsome profit.

I disagree with the advice that this is due to high fees though. The annal fees are negligible compared to the mathematical certainty that over time, volatility degrades the share price of leveraged ETFs due to daily rebalancing. This is outlined further in my article. Outcome is the same, but underlying reason is a bit more complex than fees.

]]> By: raymm http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-989 raymm Thu, 25 Jun 2009 04:40:13 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-989 I was advised that the transaction costs in 2x or 3x short ETFs were high enough to negatively affect returns. The trader said he wouldn't sit in a ultrashort ETF position for long, only use it to provide brief offset. Any comments? I was advised that the transaction costs in 2x or 3x short ETFs were high enough to negatively affect returns. The trader said he wouldn’t sit in a ultrashort ETF position for long, only use it to provide brief offset. Any comments?

]]> By: 3X Index ETF Short/Long: The Riskiest ETFs on Earth | Darwin's Finance http://www.darwinsfinance.com/is-now-the-time-to-short-us-treasuries/comment-page-1/#comment-724 3X Index ETF Short/Long: The Riskiest ETFs on Earth | Darwin's Finance Fri, 22 May 2009 04:27:27 +0000 http://www.darwinsfinance.com/?p=24#comment-724 [...] I am utilizing a Short Treasuries Strategy with the 2X short Proshares ETF TBT since the 3X wasn’t out at the time…and [...] [...] I am utilizing a Short Treasuries Strategy with the 2X short Proshares ETF TBT since the 3X wasn’t out at the time…and [...]

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