Is Now the Time to Short US Treasuries?

I think 10-year+ government bonds are in a bubble but I’m not sure I’d short them. Or maybe do some clever pairs trade. The news is so unremittingly dire it’s possible yields could fall even further from here. The blood isn’t *really* on the streets yet, compared to what the market is saying.

If you can excuse me a link, I wrote a less expert article than your own here, which you may find of interest:
http://monevator.com/2008/12/08/government-bonds-an-exciting-new-way-to-lose-money-to-the-bear/

(I think it’s relevant but please do feel free to delete if you don’t like links in comments, no offence taken!)

Came here via your ‘submit your posts’ post on EDF, love the Darwin spin. 🙂

I’d like to short treasuries, but more importantly I want to short sell derivatives (of any and every kind)! how do I short sell a put derivative, ie similiar to what buffet is doing or better, short sell a call derivative on treasuries .,,, is that possible? If you know, please let me know at [email protected]

Stan

I was advised that the transaction costs in 2x or 3x short ETFs were high enough to negatively affect returns. The trader said he wouldn’t sit in a ultrashort ETF position for long, only use it to provide brief offset. Any comments?

I can see how TBT is not a good long term investment. Shorting TLT appears to be better for a long term strategy, as its value seems to keep better pace with the underlyings. But is it the best? What about shorting individual long term Treasury zero coupon Strips? Can they be shorted and held as shorts long term? What would be the most cost efficient way of shorting treasuries for the long term?

Fundamentals tell us there is a set up to short treasury bonds (some bonds better than others). Now: When? The only way to have a fair answer to timiming is through Tech. Analisis of the prime rate in the Daily, Weekly and Monthy charts in sincronicity. When charts and fundamental events fuxes this is it…. ahh and be prepared to shoot. Very interesting event on the run.

According to Zero Hedge, countries outside of the U.S. dumped 74 billion dollars in U.S. Treasuries, most of it over the weekend:

“Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed’s custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global). We also proposed a far simpler theory: “the dreaded D-day in which foreign official and private investors finally start offloading their $2.7 trillion in Treasurys with impunity (although not with the element of surprise – China has made it abundantly clear it will sell its Treasury holdings, the only question is when), has finally arrived.” In hindsight the Occam’s Razor should have been applied. Little did we know 5 short days ago just how violent the reaction by China would be (both post and pre-facto) to the Senate decision to propose a law for all out trade warfare with China. Now we know – in the week ended October 12, a further $17.7 billion was “removed” from the Fed’s custodial Treasury account, meaning that someone, somewhere is very displeased with US paper, and, far more importantly, what it represents, and wants to make their displeasure heard loud and clear. (Source)

Undoubtedly, the Chinese and other countries have recently discovered that Italy and Greece, with smaller debt to income ratios than the United States, are less riskier and carry a higher rate of return. This is because, unlike the US, the Rothschild/Rockefeller bond rating agencies have trashed their country’s debt ratings, forcing them to pay a much higher interest rate than U.S. Treasuries. Hey, if you take the risk, you might as well earn the reward!

We are kimberly & Co Consultant and Broker Firm London-U.K
We have excellent direct,genuine provider of Fresh Cut BG/SBLC BANK DRAFT financial instruments
specifically for lease at leasing price of 6+2 of face value, Issuance by HSBC London/Hong
Kong or any other AA rated Bank in Europe, Middle East or USA. We work directly with
issuing bank lease providers. We have excellent seller sources for cash backed Medium Term
Notes (MTNs) and Bank Guarantees (BGs).The issuing banks are Top 10 European banks.

Email us, [email protected]

kimberly Clark

We specialized in Bank Guarantee {BG}, Standby Letter of Credit {SBLC}, Medium Term Notes {MTN}, Confirmable Bank Draft {CBD} as well as other financial instruments issued from AAA Rated bank such as HSBC Bank Hong Kong, HSBC Bank London, Deutsche Bank AG Frankfurt, Barclays Bank , Standard Chartered Bank and others on lease at the lowest available rates depending on the face value of the instrument needed.

We deliver with time and precision as sethforth in the agreement. Our terms and Conditions are reasonable, below is our instrument description.

The procedure is very simple; the instrument will be reserved on euro clear to be verified by your bank, after verification an arrangement will be made for necessary bank documents and stock testing expenses, the cost of the Bank Guarantee will be paid after the delivery of the MT760.

DESCRIPTION OF INSTRUMENT:
Instrument: Bank Guarantee (BG/SBLC).
Total Face Value: Minimum of 1M Eur/USD (One Million Eur/USD) to Maximum of 5B Euro/USD(Five Billion Eur/USD).
Issuing Bank: HSBC London, Barclays Bank, Deutsche Bank Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Any AA rated Bank in Europe or any Top 25 WEB.
Age: One Year, One Day
Leasing Price: 4% of Face Value plus 1% commission fees to brokers.
Delivery: Bank to Bank SWIFT.
Payment: MT-760.
Hard Copy: Bonded Courier within 7 banking days.

All relevant business information will be provided upon request plus our terms and
procedures.

Name : Speeckaert Bernard.
E-mail : [email protected]
Skype id : speeckbern47